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The Fortress killed nothing: their Recruits stayed off it until Darius stood there

Issue #373 (a slice of #200), 2026-10-14. Constructed, Duel (485). Rules version 2026-07-16. Card text verbatim from data/corpus_flat.txt; rules pasted from data/Riftbound-Core-Rules-2026-07-16.txt and data/Riftbound-Tournament-Rules-2026-07-16.txt. Read the unopposed clock for the baseline this is measured against.

Subject: frozen-fortress-soul-shepherd-asymmetric-sweep, the Mind ENGINE in which UNL-212 Frozen Fortress deals 1 to every unit on it at the start of each Beginning Phase, and UNL-077 Soul Shepherd gives your token units +1 Might, so your Recruits live through the tick and the opponent's die. The entry is right about the rules: the tick fires in both Beginning Phases, before scoring, and a battlefield left with no units loses its controller. In a game the sweep found nothing to kill. A Recruit deck facing it keeps its 1-Might bodies off the Fortress for free, and when it wants the battlefield, its Chosen Champion OGN-243 Darius, Executioner makes them 2s there, the same fix Shepherd is for you. The tick did one thing in the walk. It put 1 damage on their OGN-217 Trifarian Gloryseeker at the start of your T3, and that let one Shepherd-sized Recruit (2 Might, made for one Energy) trade with it: a token for a card. That moved no point. It is 3 to 3 after their T4 with the trade and without it. The cheapest answer to the trade costs nothing in their colours: OGN-207 Call to Glory, free by spending the Gloryseeker's own buff.

Why this line. scripts/sequence-pick.mjs --unplayed, re-run on 2026-10-14 at eacc689, reads 773 entries, 262 with forced-ordering language, 100 in the queue and 25 of them with no play, as the issue measured. The two picks are unchanged: this entry is rank 76, the first in the list. The other entry of this slice is rank 77, jae-medarda-repeat-double-choose, played in The second Bonds is the +1 Jae lives on, and Falling Star kills him the turn before.

1. Needs

LegendOGN-265 Herald of the Arcane (Mind/Order, tag Viktor)
Chosen ChampionOGN-246 Viktor, Leader (Order, E4 + 1 Power, M4)
The pairUNL-212 Frozen Fortress (your battlefield), UNL-077 Soul Shepherd (Mind, E5, M3)
The bodiesSFD-159 Trusty Ramhound (Order, E2, M2), OGN-211 Faithful Manufactor (Order, E3, M2)

The entry admits any legend with Mind in its pair. Herald of the Arcane is the one for this walk, because it makes the tokens the entry is about, for one Energy each: ":rb_energy_1:, :rb_exhaust:: Play a 1 :rb_might: Recruit unit token." A Recruit is the 1-Might token the Fortress kills, 187.1: "A 1 [M] Recruit token is a domainless unit token with 1 Might and the Recruit tag." The Chosen Champion starts in the Champion Zone, 103.2.a.1: "This will be placed in the Champion Zone at the start of the game."

Every card here is in the legend's domains, 103.1.b.1: "Cards included in your deck must abide by your Domain Identity." None is a Signature card (signature in data/cards.json), and none is in data/legality.src.json or marked [BANNED] in data/corpus_flat.txt.

The card text the play turns on:

2. What the tick does, and to whom

It fires twice a round, before the Hold. 315.2.a.1: "At the start of Beginning Phase game effects take place." The Scoring Step comes after it, 315.2.b.2: "1. The Turn Player Holds all Battlefields they Control." The text names no player, so it works whoever controls the battlefield, or nobody. 190.6.d: "“You” in a battlefield’s abilities refers to the battlefield’s Controller, as does the implied “you” in instructions that don’t specify a player like “draw 1.” If the battlefield has no Controller, “you” refers to no one, and all such instructions are ignored." There is no such word here.

One damage kills a 1-Might body and nothing else. 143.2.a: "If a Unit ever has nonzero damage marked on it equalling or exceeding its Might, it is Killed." A unit it kills leaves the battlefield before the Hold, and a battlefield with no units loses its controller, 323.6: "4. Players lose control of any controlled Battlefields without their Units occupying them if the turn is in an Open State and there is no Showdown or Combat ongoing there." That is all true, as the entry says.

The tick always lands first on the player who just took the battlefield. Any unit at the Fortress was moved or played there on some player's turn. The next Beginning Phase is the other player's. So a 1-Might body the opponent leaves there dies at the start of your turn, and yours dies at the start of theirs. A battlefield they take with Recruits alone is empty at the start of your turn, and you can walk in for a Conquer, 316.8.b.1: "Showdowns that occur as a result of a player moving to an empty Battlefield are a stand-alone Phase and do not create a Combat."

The damage stays for the whole turn the tick starts. 143.3.b: "Damage is Healed from Units at two specific times:" 143.3.b.1: "At the end of each player's turn." So a unit that survives the tick has 1 damage on it until that turn ends, and combat counts it. 465.2.c.4: "Units cannot have more damage assigned to them than the minimum required to constitute lethal damage unless no further units remain to have damage assigned to them." Its example: "If a player has 5 damage to distribute among four 3 Might units and those units each have 1 damage already marked on them, that player may not assign more than 2 damage to any of those units." For the turn that follows, a unit at the Fortress is one Might short of its printed size. A 2-Might Recruit there dies to 1 more damage. If Soul Shepherd leaves the board during that turn, every one of your Recruits there is a 1 with 1 damage marked, and dies (143.2.a).

Soul Shepherd lands on your T3, going first. He costs E5. Going first you have 2, 4, 6 and 8 runes on T1 to T4, so T3 is the first turn you can pay for him. Units enter exhausted, 143.4: "Units enter the Board exhausted." A unit reaches the Fortress by walking from base, 144.4.a: "Units may move from their Base to a Battlefield." Or it is played there, which needs control of it, 355.2.a: "By default, Valid locations include the controller’s Base or a Battlefield the controller controls." A unit on the other battlefield cannot walk across, 144.4.b: "Units may move from a Battlefield to their Base." That takes Ganking, 144.4.c.1: "Units with Ganking may use their Standard Move to Move from Battlefield to Battlefield."

3. Their deck: Fury/Order Recruits

OGN-253 Hand of Noxus (Fury/Order): ":rb_exhaust:: [Reaction], [Legion] — [Add] :rb_energy_1:. (Abilities that add resources can't be reacted to. Get the effect if you've played a card this turn.)" Its Chosen Champion is OGN-243 Darius, Executioner (Order, E6 + 1 Power, M6): "[Legion] — When you play me, ready me. (Get the effect if you've played another card this turn) Other friendly units have +1 :rb_might: here." They make Recruits with OGN-212 Forge of the Future (Order gear, E2): "When you play this, play a 1 :rb_might: Recruit unit token at your base.", with Faithful Manufactor, and with OGN-218 Vanguard Captain (Order, E3 + 1 Power, M3): "[Legion] — When you play me, play two 1 :rb_might: Recruit unit tokens here." OGN-217 Trifarian Gloryseeker (Order, E2, M2): "[Legion] — When you play me, buff me." Going second they channel an extra rune on T1, 485.7: "The player going second channels an extra Rune from their Rune Deck during their first Channel Phase of the game." §5 names their answers.

4. The turns, going first

Mind/Order against Fury/Order. Your battlefield is F, the Frozen Fortress; theirs is B, OGN-278 Bandle Tree ("You may hide an additional card here."), which nothing in the walk uses. Your opening four are Trusty Ramhound, Faithful Manufactor, Soul Shepherd and OGN-087 Lecturing Yordle. Your draws are OGN-210 Daring Poro (T1), OGN-096 Watchful Sentry (T2), Vanguard Captain (T3) and a second Faithful Manufactor (T4). Their opening four are Forge of the Future, Trifarian Gloryseeker, Faithful Manufactor and Vanguard Captain. Their draws are OGN-222 Noxian Drummer (T1), UNL-018 Yeti Brawler (T2), OGN-239 Machine Evangel (T3) and a second Vanguard Captain (T4).

turn    runes   your turn                                                 points
T1      2       Trusty Ramhound (E2) to base.                             0
their T1  3     Forge of the Future (E2): a Recruit to their base. Hand
                of Noxus: +E1. Trifarian Gloryseeker (E2), Legion: buff,
                M3. None left.
T2      4       Ramhound walks to B, Conquer: +1. Faithful Manufactor     1
                (E3) to B: a Recruit at B; Ramhound is a 3. Herald (E1):
                a Recruit to base. None left.
their T2  5     The Gloryseeker walks to F, Conquer. Their Recruit stays
                home. Faithful Manufactor (E3) to base: a Recruit. Hand
                of Noxus: +E1. Vanguard Captain (E3 + 1 Order Power) to
                base, Legion: two Recruits. Five runes, one recycled.
T3      6       Start: F deals 1 to the Gloryseeker. Hold B: +1.          2
                Soul Shepherd (E5) to B: your Recruits are 2s. Your
                base Recruit walks to F: 2 against the Gloryseeker's 3,
                1 marked. Both die; F is left empty. Herald (E1): a
                Recruit to B. None left.
their T3  6     Nothing to Hold. Four Recruits, the Manufactor and the
                Captain walk to F, Conquer. Darius, Executioner (E6 + 1
                Order Power) to F, exhausted: their Recruits there are
                2s. Six runes, one recycled.
T4      8       Start: F deals 1 to each of their seven; none dies.       3
                Hold B: +1. Lecturing Yordle (E3) to B: draw. Vanguard
                Captain (E3 + 1 Order Power) to B, Legion: two Recruits.
                Herald (E1): a Recruit to base. Seven runes, one
                recycled; one left.
their T4  7     Start: F deals 1 to each of their seven; none dies.
                Hold F: +1. Machine Evangel (E5 + 1 Order Power) to F.
                Five runes, one recycled; two left.

Their points: 0 after their T1, 1 after their T2, 2 after their T3, 3 after their T4. After your T4 it is 3 to 2; after their T4, 3 to 3.

Your hand, card by card: 5 after the T1 draw, 4 after Ramhound; 5, then 4 after T2; 5, then 4 after Shepherd; 5 after the T4 draw, 4 after the Yordle, 5 after its draw (OGN-084 Eager Apprentice), 4 after the Captain (Daring Poro, Watchful Sentry, Faithful Manufactor, Eager Apprentice). Theirs: 5 after the T1 draw, 3 after Forge and the Gloryseeker; 4, then 2 after T2 (Noxian Drummer, Yeti Brawler); 3 after the T3 draw; 4, then 3 after the Evangel. Darius comes from the Champion Zone, not the hand, 419.1.a: "By default, a player can only Play cards from their hand or their Chosen Champion zone."

Your T2. Ramhound takes B, the empty battlefield, and the Manufactor goes to B with it, which you now control (355.2.a): Ramhound is a 3 with another unit there, and B is 3 + 2 + 1 = 6. Sent to F instead, the Manufactor's Recruit would be played "here", on the Fortress, and die at the start of their turn. Herald's Recruit goes to base, not B. In base it is ready to walk on T3, and only a unit in base can walk to F (144.4.a, 144.4.b).

Their T2: the Fortress decides where their Recruits go. Their two ready units are the Gloryseeker (3) and the T1 Recruit (1). Against B they are 4 against 6: they kill two of yours and lose both, and you keep B. So they take F, which is empty. Their Recruit stays in base. At F it would die at the start of your T3 and add nothing before that. The Manufactor and the Captain go to base for the same reason. Played to F, which they now control, the tick would kill their three Recruits at the start of your T3. That is the sweep the entry describes. It happens only if they choose it. It would keep F theirs, since a lone 2-Might Recruit cannot win into 3 + 2 + 3 with 1 marked on each. But your Recruit would still trade for one of the three (2 is lethal on the Gloryseeker or the Captain), and they would Hold F on T3 instead of taking it back. That is the same 2 to 2, three Recruits poorer. Their runes: five for E3 + E3 with Hand of Noxus's E1, and an Order rune recycled for the Captain's Power, 164.2.b: "Recycle this: [Reaction] — Add [C]."

Your T3, the tick and the trade. At the start of your Beginning Phase the Fortress deals 1 to the Gloryseeker. Then you Hold B (315.2.b.2). In your Main Phase, Soul Shepherd goes to B. That makes your base Recruit a 2, and it walks into F. The Gloryseeker defends as a 3 with 1 marked, so 2 is lethal (465.2.c.4). Its 3 is lethal on the Recruit. Both die, and nobody holds F, 466.5.b: "If there are no Units remaining here controlled by any player, the Battlefield becomes Uncontrolled." No Conquer: nobody has units there. They had no rune ready and nothing in hand to answer it. Without the tick, the Gloryseeker takes 2 of 3 and lives. Without Shepherd, the Recruit deals 1 and the Gloryseeker lives. Both pieces were needed, and what they bought was one Energy's token for one of their cards.

Shepherd goes to B, not base, because of their T3. B is then 3 + 2 + 2 + 3 + 2 = 12 with the second Recruit. Their base on T3 is 2 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 9, and Darius can only enter exhausted (below). Into 12 their 9 kill four of yours and all of theirs die, so they do not attack B. With Shepherd in base, B is 9 and their 9 clear it, losing all of theirs too, and your T4 Hold of B goes.

What the trade moved. Without it, the Gloryseeker survives the tick at the start of their T3 (a 3 with 1 marked) and they Hold F: 2 to 2. With it, F is empty, and they take it back on their T3 with the units in their base: 2 to 2. After that neither battlefield changes hands. You Hold B on T4 and they Hold F on T4: 3 to 3. The trade was worth a card, not a point.

Their T3: Darius is their Soul Shepherd. Their six units in base walk to F together, 144.3: "Players may perform multiple Units' standard move simultaneously." F is empty, so it is a Conquer with no combat (316.8.b.1), 469.1: "Conquer: A player gains Control of a Battlefield they did not yet Score this turn." Darius then goes to F, which they control (355.2.a). His Legion fails, because a move is not a card, so he enters exhausted (143.4), and it does not matter: "Other friendly units have +1 :rb_might: here" makes their four Recruits there 2s. Six runes pay the E6, and one Order rune is recycled for the Power. Hand of Noxus's E1 has nothing to buy: their hand is a Drummer (E3), a Yeti (E6) and an Evangel (E5).

Your T4 and their T4: the tick hits everything and kills nothing. At the start of each Beginning Phase, F deals 1 to each of their seven: Darius a 6, Captain a 4, Manufactor a 3, each Recruit a 2. Nothing of yours can reach F. Your ready units stand at B (144.4.b), and what you play enters exhausted (143.4). They Hold F on their T4, 469.2: "Hold: A player maintains Control of a Battlefield they did not yet Score this turn during their Beginning Phase." Their units at F cannot reach B either.

The fuse runs both ways. At any point in your T4, Darius has 1 damage marked, and so does each of his four Recruits. If he died, each Recruit would be a 1 with 1 marked, and all four would die at once (143.2.a). OGN-213 Hidden Blade is Order, two runes ("Kill a unit at a battlefield. Its controller draws 2."), and it is in your colours too. It is not in your hand, and the walk does not use it. It is the same weakness §2 gives your own token garrison.

How often this happens. The draw pile is 39 cards, the 40 of Tournament Rules 402.1 less the Chosen Champion, which 103.2.a.1 places in the Champion Zone. Tournament Rules 402.1: "In a constructed event, players must register a Main Deck of exactly 40 cards (including a chosen champion), 1 Legend, 12 runes, and exactly 3 battlefields each with a unique name." Going first you have seen 7 cards by T3 (four opening, one draw a turn from T1). With three copies (103.2.b), a Soul Shepherd among them is 45.73%. With a Faithful Manufactor among the 6 seen by T2 as well, it is 16.89%. Before any card: in a Duel each player draws one of their three battlefields at random, 485.5: "Setup: Each player randomly selects one (1) of their three (3) Battlefields. The other two are removed and will not be used for this game." The Fortress is on the table in 1 game in 3, 33.33%. In a match of three, 486.5 lets you choose it, "Each player selects one (1) of their three (3) Battlefields.", but "After this game, if a player won, the Battlefields that were used are to be removed and not selected again for this Match." So it is in one game of the match.

5. Breaks to

What the engine did in the walk, and the predicate. It made one trade on your T3: a Recruit from Herald's E1 for their Trifarian Gloryseeker, with F left empty. It moved no point. The predicate is: played on your T3, does it keep the Gloryseeker alive at F? A Gloryseeker that lives Holds F at the start of their T3. The score is the same 2 to 2, and they are a card up.

The scope. A Fury/Order deck plays only Fury, Order and Fury/Order cards (103.1.b.1), and its Signature cards must carry its legend's tag, 103.2.d.2: "All of the Signature cards must have the Champion tag that corresponds to the Champion Legend of the deck." Hand of Noxus's tag is Darius. The predicate is: a card in those domains in data/cards.json (not a legend, battlefield, rune or token), with [Action], [Reaction], [Hidden] or [Ambush] in its text, not banned, and not a Signature card with another champion's tag. Folded by name, that is 63 cards. None is banned. The two Signature cards in those domains with another tag, SFD-188 Void Rush (Rek'Sai) and UNL-188 Hextech Gauntlets (Vi), have none of the keywords. The Darius Signature, OGN-254 Noxian Guillotine, is among the 63. By the runes they cost (the larger of the Energy and the Power, the Power recycled off the same runes), 9 cost one rune, 23 two, 14 three, and 17 four or more, at printed cost.

The cheapest answer costs nothing, and the walk had zero runes. In the walk their five runes and Hand of Noxus's E1 all went into the Manufactor and the Captain. The legend gives nothing on your turn until they have played a card. OGN-207 Call to Glory (Order, E3, [Reaction]): "As you play this, you may spend a buff as an additional cost. If you do, ignore this spell's cost. Give a unit +3 :rb_might: this turn." The Gloryseeker carries the buff its Legion gave it on their T1, 702.2.b: "Spending a Buff removes a single Buff counter from a Unit." Spent, it is a 2; with the +3 it is a 5 with 1 marked. Your 2 do not kill it, and its 5 kill the Recruit. It is the only card among the 63 whose cost goes to zero from hand in this walk. OGN-008 Get Excited! ignores the Power of the card it discards, not its own; SFD-164 Drag Under is cheaper only from outside the hand; UNL-178 Poppy, Defender of the Meek needs 3 XP, and they have none. So zero runes is the floor, and one card is the whole price.

Two more windows are swept, each costing them something on their T2. Each prices single cards. On your turn, once they play a card, Hand of Noxus's Legion is met, and it adds E1. The two-card lines that opens are not swept.

A card hidden at F on their T2. They control F after the Conquer, which is what hiding needs, 811.1.b: "While this card is in your hand or in your Champion Zone on your turn during an Open State, you may pay [A] to hide this facedown at a battlefield you control that doesn't already have a facedown card hidden there for as long as you control that battlefield. Beginning on the next turn, this gains [Reaction] and you may play this, ignoring its base cost." The [A] is Power, paid by recycling a rune (164.2.b), and the rune does not have to be ready, so the walk's T2 can afford it. It costs them a rune for good. [2026-10-24, #452: not for good. A recycled rune goes to the bottom of the Rune Deck (416.1, 416.1.b) and is channelled again when the deck reaches it (430.1). Going second, with 485.7's extra rune and then only the Channel Phase's two a turn (315.3.b), each rune they recycle is a rune short on every turn through their T5, until their Rune Deck runs dry (161.2.a); a card that channels more (430.2) brings it back sooner. The walk ends after their T4, so the count stands for every turn it covers. The wording above is kept as history.] On their T3 they have five, and Darius (E6) cannot come down. Played from facedown, the card has Reaction, 811.6: "A card that is Hidden gains Reaction while facedown or played from facedown, and may be played any time a card with Reaction may be played as a result." A unit played from it must go to F, 811.1.d.1: "A hidden permanent must be played to that battlefield." It becomes a defender, 464.2.c.3.a: "If a Unit controlled by the Attacker or Defender becomes present at this Battlefield after this moment, it will gain the Attacker or Defender designation during the Cleanup phase following the action that caused it to become present, as appropriate for its controller." Ten of the 63 have [Hidden] (OGN-018 Noxus Saboteur only names it). Four break the trade:

The other six do not. A unit that joins as a defender does not save the Gloryseeker, because you assign your 2 first, and to whichever unit you choose (465.2.c: "Starting with the Attacker, each player assigns an amount of damage equal to their summed Might among the other's Units."). None of them has [Tank]. That covers VEN-117 Disciple of Shen, UNL-028 Pyke, Dockside Butcher (its +2 needs a Fury rune recycled, which they have, and still loses the Gloryseeker), and the 2-Might Sand Soldier from SFD-154 Guards!. Each of them keeps F, but the Gloryseeker dies. VEN-135 Kennen, Keeper of Balance needs E2 to stun, and they have no Energy at all: Hand of Noxus was exhausted for the T2 Manufactor and Captain. SFD-004 Bushwhack readies units nobody plays. UNL-013 Lotus Trap doubles damage to one unit. On the Recruit, the Gloryseeker's 3 kill it anyway, and the 2 still reach the Gloryseeker.

Two runes up, skipping the Captain. Holding even one rune back costs them the Captain. Its E3 is two runes and Hand of Noxus's E1, and the Manufactor took the other three. Skipping it leaves two runes ready on your T3. The 32 cards at two runes or less were swept. [Action] is enough here, because the trade happens in a combat showdown, 806.1.b: "Action grants the corresponding card or effect permission to be played or activated during Showdowns, even when it is not the Controlling player's turn." Fourteen break it:

The other eighteen do not. OGN-004 Cleave, SFD-003 Blood Rush and UNL-010 Vault Breaker give Assault, which counts only while attacking. UNL-173 Sacrifice needs a Mighty unit of theirs, and they have none. VEN-015 Decree of Rage reaches only a Calm unit, and a Recruit has no domain. OGN-040 Seal of Rage and OGN-245 Seal of Unity are gear whose [Reaction] works only from the board. OGN-033 Shakedown deals 6 "unless its controller has you draw 2": you choose, and you let them draw 2. UNL-175 Tactical Retreat recalls the Gloryseeker, so it is alive in their base, not at F. Your Recruit still takes its 3 in the same step, 465.2.c.1.a: "When all Damage is assigned, it will be Dealt simultaneously. These actions are not synonymous." So the Recruit dies, F is left empty (466.5.b) and nobody Conquers. That is the walk's own end state, with the Gloryseeker in their base instead of the trash. OGN-224 Salvage, SFD-011 Angle Shot and SFD-166 Rally the Troops touch no unit in the fight. UNL-002 Inferna comes in as a defender, which does not save the Gloryseeker. Lotus Trap does nothing useful here, as above. From hand, SFD-004 Bushwhack, Mischievous Marai, Disciple of Shen and UNL-161 Divining Shells have no [Action] or [Reaction], so they cannot be played on your turn.

Answers to the filter itself. The entry's claim is wider than the trade: your tokens live through the tick and theirs die. Against Fury/Order that is answered four ways, all in their colours:

6. Verdict

Right about the rules; silent about the opponent. The Fortress fires in both Beginning Phases, before the Hold, and a battlefield it empties loses its controller, as the entry says. Soul Shepherd does keep your Recruits above it. Walked against a Recruit deck, the tick killed nothing. A 1-Might body at the Fortress is there only because its owner left it there. Their Recruits stayed in base until their Chosen Champion stood on the battlefield and made them 2s. The tick's one effect was 1 damage on the Gloryseeker, which a 2-Might Recruit turned into a token-for-card trade. That moved no point: 3 to 3 after their T4 either way. The cheapest answer to that trade is Call to Glory, free by spending the buff the Gloryseeker already had. And the damage stays on through the turn, so on the opponent's turn a token garrison on the Fortress dies to 1 damage per token, or all at once to Soul Shepherd's death.

7. Not verified

I did not deal the channel order. The walk assumes six Mind and six Order runes for you, Herald of the Arcane's two domains, in the twelve of Tournament Rules 402.1. Soul Shepherd and every T1 to T3 card need no Power. The T4 Captain's Order Power is among eight runes in all 924 deals, because only six are Mind.

Their walk assumes six Fury and six Order. The T2 Captain's Order Power needs an Order among five: it fails in 7 of 924 deals, 0.76%. Darius's on T3 needs a second Order among seven, since one was recycled on T2: 7 of 924, 0.76%. Either fails in 12 of 924, 1.30%. The T4 Evangel's Order is there in every deal where both of those were paid. In the two-rune window of §5, with five runes channelled and none recycled: Hextech Ray, Monster Harpoon, Smite, Get Excited! and Long Sword need a Fury, and fail in 7 of 924, 0.76% each. Hidden Blade and Ki Barrier need an Order: 7 of 924, 0.76% each. Hiding takes any rune.

How likely an answer is. Out of their own 39, by your T3 they have seen 6 cards: four opening and a draw on each of their two turns. Call to Glory, run three times, is among them in 40.30%. Two answers in three copies each (six cards), 66.05%; three (nine cards), 81.80%. These count only the cards named, not how many of them a deck runs.

Their hand holding no answer is the walk's assumption; §5 prices it. Not walked: going second (where Soul Shepherd comes down on T2, with five runes), the mulligan, 2v2, a Recruit garrison of yours on the Fortress through their turn (§2 prices it by rule), and the two-card lines Hand of Noxus's E1 opens on your turn. The probabilities count only the cards named.

Leads