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Decree of Focus takes the first spell, Crumbling Sands the second, and the free answer is the empty battlefield

Issue #440 (a slice of #200), 2026-10-23. Constructed, Duel (485). Rules version 2026-07-16. Card text verbatim from data/corpus_flat.txt; rules pasted from data/Riftbound-Core-Rules-2026-07-16.txt and data/Riftbound-Tournament-Rules-2026-07-16.txt. Read the unopposed clock for the baseline this is measured against.

Subject: crumbling-sands-decree-of-focus-conditional-reactions, the Calm ENGINE that holds VEN-039 Crumbling Sands (Calm spell, E1 + 1 Calm Power, [Reaction], counters a spell if an opponent has played another spell this turn) beside VEN-040 Decree of Focus (Calm spell, E1, [Reaction], +4 on a friendly unit in combat with an enemy Fury unit or chosen by an enemy Fury spell), and calls them the cheapest answers in Calm, each blank against the board it was not written for. The entry is right about both conditions. Walked as a game, going first, under OGN-261 Radiant Dawn against the Fury/Chaos Draven deck of the En Garde play, in the same seats, you keep two runes up on T2 behind a Poro and a Ramhound at A. The main line: their Saboteur attacks A with OGN-009 Hextech Ray and OGN-004 Cleave behind it. Decree of Focus makes the Ramhound a 7, so the Ray (the first spell) does not kill it. Crumbling Sands counters the Cleave (the second). A stays yours: 1 to 0 after their T2, 3 to 2 after their T4. The same deal with OGN-044 Clockwork Keeper in both slots loses A on their T2 and ends 3 to 3. Two other swaps get the main line's 3 to 2: OGN-045 Defy in Crumbling Sands' slot, at the same rune, and OGN-046 En Garde in Decree of Focus' slot. The cheapest answer is free: the Saboteur walks into the empty B instead. Neither card can be cast, and the game ends 3 to 3, the control's score. Once they fight into the two runes, the cheapest answer is a third one-rune spell. Ray, Cleave, UNL-014 Monster Harpoon and OGN-169 Gust each leave A empty, for one rune.

Why this line. scripts/sequence-pick.mjs --unplayed, re-run on 2026-10-23 at b2d869d, reads 773 entries, 262 with forced-ordering language, 97 in the queue and 7 of them with no play, as the issue measured at e878182. The two picks are unchanged: this entry is rank 92, the second in the list. The other entry of this slice is rank 91, combat-experience-feral-strength-repeat-versus-level.

1. Needs

LegendOGN-261 Radiant Dawn (Calm/Order, tag Leona)
Chosen ChampionOGN-238 Leona, Determined (Order, E4 + 1 Order Power, M4), never played in the walk
The counterVEN-039 Crumbling Sands (Calm spell, E1 + 1 Calm Power)
The pumpVEN-040 Decree of Focus (Calm spell, E1)
The swapsOGN-045 Defy (Calm spell, E1 + 1 Calm Power) for the counter, OGN-046 En Garde (Calm spell, E1) for the pump, OGN-044 Clockwork Keeper (Calm, E2, M2) for both in the control
The bodiesOGN-210 Daring Poro (Order, E2, M2), SFD-159 Trusty Ramhound (Order, E2, M2), OGN-054 Sunlit Guardian (Calm, E3, M3), OGN-216 Soaring Scout (Order, E2, M1), SFD-157 Royal Guard (Order, E4, M2), OGN-218 Vanguard Captain (Order, E3 + 1 Order Power, M3)

The entry admits any legend with Calm in its pair. Radiant Dawn is the one for this walk because its text plays no part in it ("When you stun one or more enemy units, buff a friendly unit. (If it doesn't have a buff, it gets a +1 :rb_might: buff.)"), and nothing here stuns. Its tag is Leona, so Leona, Determined can be the Chosen Champion, 103.2.a.2: "Must be a champion unit with a champion tag that matches the tag on your Champion Legend."

Both cards are mono-Calm, so a Calm/Order deck admits them, 103.1.b.3: "If a card has a single Domain, then that card is permitted in the Domain Identity that corresponds to the same Domain." Three copies of each is the cap, 103.2.b: "Your Main Deck can include up to 3 copies of the same named card." None of the cards in this play is a Signature card (signature in data/cards.json), and none is in data/legality.src.json or marked [BANNED] in data/corpus_flat.txt.

The card text the play turns on:

2. What each condition reads, and what the rune costs

"Another spell" counts from the moment it is on the chain. Crumbling Sands' condition is not a triggered ability; it checks whether a spell has been played, and 419.4.b says how: "Non-triggered abilities that check cards being played do so by means of referencing whether said cards have been Finalized." Its first example is the case that matters most here: "A player plays a spell, which is countered by Defy. Any Legion abilities of game objects controlled by that same player will be active." So the first spell does not have to resolve, and a first spell that was countered still counts. A countered card is unplayed only for triggers, 425.1.b: "A card that is Countered is not considered to have been played for abilities that trigger on cards being played." What Crumbling Sands cannot do is counter the only spell of the turn: no other spell has been played.

A [Repeat] spell is one spell. 820.3.a: "Regardless of the number of times a spell or ability's instructions are executed with this keyword, it is only Played once." So a SFD-003 Blood Rush with its [Repeat] paid does not turn Crumbling Sands on by itself. Crumbling Sands counts plays, and 820.3.a states the count, so the open [Repeat] reading (the #187 bullet in docs/rules-notes/rules-findings.md, one play and two sets of choices) does not bear on it. No [Repeat] is paid in this walk.

What a counter does. 425.1.a: "A card or ability that is Countered does nothing and is cleared from the chain." And it refunds nothing, 425.1.c: "Countering does not refund any costs paid to play a card, activate an ability, or trigger an ability."

Decree of Focus has two halves, and either one is enough. The first is a unit "in combat", 740.2.c: "A unit is in combat if it is occupying a battlefield where combat is ongoing and has a combat designation." So it needs a combat at that battlefield with an enemy Fury unit in it. The second is a unit being chosen by an enemy Fury spell, which is a spell on the chain with that unit as its target. Either way the Decree is about the enemy's card, not about which spell of the turn it is, so it is live on the first spell. The +4 lasts the turn and is read where combat reads Might, 465.2.c: "Starting with the Attacker, each player assigns an amount of damage equal to their summed Might among the other's Units." A spell whose target is no longer legal leaves it alone, 359.3.e.5: "If any of the spell's targets are no longer legal, those game objects, players, or zones are unaffected by the spell as it resolves. Any instructions related to an illegal target can’t be followed."

Both are bought on their turn, after they commit. Both have [Reaction], 813.1.c.1: "This can be played during Closed States on any player's turn." and 813.1.b: "Reaction grants the corresponding card or effect all abilities and permissions of Action." That includes 806.1.b: "Action grants the corresponding card or effect permission to be played or activated during Showdowns, even when it is not the Controlling player's turn." Their spells in the walk are [Action], so they can cast them in the same showdown. In a combat the attacker acts first, 464.2.d: "3. The Attacker gains Focus."

One ready rune for each, and the Calm Power from any Calm rune. A rune adds Energy by exhausting, 164.2.a: "[E]: [Reaction] — Add [1]." It adds Power by leaving, 164.2.b: "Recycle this: [Reaction] — Add [C].", and 164.2.b.1: "The Power added this way corresponds to the Domain of the Rune that is being Recycled." The recycle has no exhaust in its cost, so an exhausted rune still pays it. Your runes ready only on your own turn, 415.3.a: "A player Readies all non-spell Game Objects they Control during the Awakening Phase on their turn." So on their turn Decree of Focus needs one rune you left ready. Crumbling Sands and Defy each need one ready rune for the Energy and a Calm rune, ready or not, for the Power. That can be the same rune, exhausted for the Energy and then recycled. The recycled rune goes to the bottom of your rune deck, 416.1: "Recycling cards is the action in which a player takes one or more cards from a specific zone and then puts it on the bottom of the corresponding deck." So your board has one rune fewer from then on.

Defy's cap reads the printed cost. 206's second example: "Defy is a spell which reads “Counter a spell that costs no more than [4] and no more than [A].” Rocket Barrage is a spell that costs [4][C] and has a Repeat cost of [4][C]. Rocket Barrage is a legal target for Defy even if Rocket Barrage’s Repeat cost is paid, because Defy only checks the printed or copied cost of its target." Every spell in their walk hand costs E1, with at most one Power.

Where a unit can be played, and the runes. 355.2.a: "By default, Valid locations include the controller’s Base or a Battlefield the controller controls." A unit played to a battlefield you already control opens no showdown, 190.3.a.1: "Units moving to or being played to a battlefield apply Contested status if that battlefield is not already Contested and that Unit’s controller does not already control that battlefield." It enters exhausted, 143.4: "Units enter the Board exhausted.", and it still defends. Going first, you channel to 2, 4, 6 and 8 runes on T1 to T4, less any you recycle. Units move from base to a battlefield and back, never between battlefields, 144.4.a: "Units may move from their Base to a Battlefield." 144.4.b: "Units may move from a Battlefield to their Base." No unit in this walk has [Ganking].

3. Their deck: Fury/Chaos Draven

The deck of the En Garde play linked above, in the same seat, with spells in its hand this time. SFD-185 Glorious Executioner (Fury/Chaos): "When you win a combat, draw 1. (You win if only your units remain after combat.)" Its Chosen Champion is OGN-028 Draven, Showboat, never played. Their bodies are OGN-018 Noxus Saboteur (Fury, E3, M3), OGN-010 Legion Rearguard (Fury, E2, M2), OGN-013 Pouty Poro (Fury, E2, M2), OGN-016 Dangerous Duo (Fury, E3, M3), OGN-165 Cemetery Attendant (Chaos, E3 + 1 Chaos Power, M3; "When you play me, return a unit from your trash to your hand.") and OGN-171 Mystic Poro (Chaos, E2, M2). Their spells are Hextech Ray (Fury, E1 + 1 Fury Power) and Cleave (Fury, E1). Going second, they channel an extra rune on T1, 485.7: "First Turn Process: The player going second channels an extra Rune from their Rune Deck during their first Channel Phase of the game."

4. The turns, going first

Calm/Order against Fury/Chaos. Your battlefield is A, OGN-282 Monastery of Hirana ("When you conquer here, you may spend a buff to draw 1.", and nobody has a buff); theirs is B, SFD-210 Hall of Legends ("When you conquer here, you may pay :rb_energy_1: to ready your legend.", and neither legend has an exhaust ability). Your opening four are Daring Poro, Trusty Ramhound, Crumbling Sands and Decree of Focus. Your draws are Sunlit Guardian (T1), Soaring Scout (T2), Royal Guard (T3) and Vanguard Captain (T4). Their opening four are Noxus Saboteur, Legion Rearguard, Hextech Ray and Cleave. Their draws are Pouty Poro (T1), Dangerous Duo (T2), Cemetery Attendant (T3) and Mystic Poro (T4).

The main line is the list with both cards, against an opponent who attacks A on their T2.

turn      runes   your turn                                                 points
T1        2       Daring Poro (E2) to base. None left.                      0
their T1  3       Noxus Saboteur (E3) to base. None left.
T2        4       The Poro walks to A, empty, Conquer: +1. Trusty           1
                  Ramhound (E2) to A. Two left.
their T2  5       Legion Rearguard (E2) to base. The Saboteur attacks
                  A. Hextech Ray (E1, one Fury recycled) on the
                  Ramhound; Decree of Focus (E1): the Ramhound is a 7,
                  and the Ray marks 3. Cleave (E1) on the Saboteur;
                  Crumbling Sands (E1, one Calm recycled) counters it.
                  The Saboteur's 3 kill the Poro; your 9 kill the
                  Saboteur. A stays yours. One left.
T3        5       Hold A: +1. Sunlit Guardian (E3) and Soaring Scout       2
                  (E2) to A. None left.
their T3  6       The Rearguard walks to B, empty, Conquer. Cemetery
                  Attendant (E3 + 1 Chaos Power): the Saboteur comes
                  back to their hand. Noxus Saboteur (E3) to base. Six
                  runes, one recycled; none left.
T4        7       Hold A: +1. Royal Guard (E4) to A, its Sand Soldier      3
                  with it. Vanguard Captain (E3 + 1 Order Power, with
                  Legion) to A, two Recruits with him. Seven runes, one
                  recycled; none left.
their T4  7       Hold B. Pouty Poro (E2), Dangerous Duo (E3) and
                  Mystic Poro (E2) to base. None left.

Their points: 0 after their T1, 0 after their T2, 1 after their T3, 2 after their T4. After their T2 it is 1 to 0; after your T3, 2 to 0; after their T3, 2 to 1; after your T4, 3 to 1; after their T4, 3 to 2.

Runes on your board at the end of each turn: 2, 4, 3 after their T2, 5, 6 after your T4. On theirs: 3, 4 after their T2, 5 after their T3, 7.

Your hand, card by card: 5 after the T1 draw, 4 after the Poro; 5 after the T2 draw, 4 after the Ramhound, 2 after the Decree and Crumbling Sands on their T2 (Sunlit Guardian, Soaring Scout); 3 after the T3 draw, 1 after the Guardian and the Scout (Royal Guard); 2 after the T4 draw, 0 after the Guard and the Captain. Theirs: 5 after the T1 draw, 4 after the Saboteur; 5 after the T2 draw, 2 after the Rearguard, the Ray and the Cleave (Pouty Poro, Dangerous Duo); 3 after the T3 draw, 2 after the Attendant, 3 with the Saboteur back, 2 after the Saboteur; 3 after the T4 draw, 0 after the three bodies.

Your T2: two runes up, two bodies at A. The Poro takes A, which is empty: a non-combat showdown, 316.8.b.1: "Showdowns that occur as a result of a player moving to an empty Battlefield are a stand-alone Phase and do not create a Combat." They spent all three runes on their T1, so it is a Conquer, 348.2.a.1: "This results in a Conquer if that player has not yet scored that Battlefield this turn." The Ramhound goes to A, which you now control (355.2.a), with no showdown (190.3.a.1). A is the Poro's 2 and the Ramhound's 3, with company: 5. Sunlit Guardian would leave one rune, so it waits; the two runes left are one for each reaction.

Their T2: the attack, and the first spell. The Saboteur, a 3, attacks a 5, so it needs both spells. The Ray on the Ramhound (3 against 3) kills it, and the Cleave makes the Saboteur a 6 that kills the Poro and survives the Poro's 2. That takes A, and the legend draws. The attacker has Focus (464.2.d) and plays the Ray first, exhausting one rune for the Energy and recycling a Fury rune for the Power. You answer with Decree of Focus: the Ramhound is both in combat with an enemy Fury unit and chosen by an enemy Fury spell. It resolves first, and the Ramhound is 2 + 1 + 4 = 7. Then the Ray resolves and marks 3, which is not lethal, 142.4.b: "Lethal Damage for a Unit is a non-zero amount greater than or equal to that Unit’s Might." Crumbling Sands could not have answered the Ray: no other spell had been played this turn.

The second spell. The chain closes and Focus moves on, 347.1.b: "When that Chain closes, Focus passes to the next Player in Turn Order." You pass, and it comes back to them, 347.2.b: "Otherwise, Focus passes to the next Player in Turn Order." Cleave on the Saboteur would still pay: a 6 kills the Poro (2) and puts 4 on the Ramhound, whose 3 marked make 7, lethal. Both of yours die, your 9 kill the Saboteur, and A is left empty, 466.5.b: "If there are no Units remaining here controlled by any player, the Battlefield becomes Uncontrolled." So they play it. Crumbling Sands counters it: the Ray was the other spell (419.4.b). You exhaust your last ready rune for the Energy and recycle a Calm rune for the Power.

The combat. The Saboteur is a 3 against the Poro's 2 and the Ramhound's 7. Lethal goes to one unit in full first, 465.2.c.3: "Units must have lethal damage assigned to them in full before damage is assigned to a different Unit." Their 3 kill the Poro and put 1 on the Ramhound, 4 marked on 7. Your 9 kill the Saboteur. Only your unit remains, so A stays yours and their legend does not draw. Damage heals at the end of the turn.

Your T3 and theirs. You Hold A, 469.2: "Hold: A player maintains Control of a Battlefield they did not yet Score this turn during their Beginning Phase." Five runes, three left on the board after the recycle and two channelled, buy the Guardian and the Scout at A: the Ramhound's 3, the Guardian's 4 while defending ("[Shield] (+1 :rb_might: while I'm a defender.) [Tank] (I must be assigned combat damage first.)"), and the Scout's 1, 8. Their only ready body is the Rearguard, a 2, so it takes the empty B, and you have no rune up. The Attendant brings back the Saboteur that Decree of Focus and Crumbling Sands killed.

Your T4 and theirs. You Hold A. The Guard and the Captain go to A, and A defends at 3 + 4 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 3 + 1 + 1 = 17. Their ready bodies are the Attendant and the Saboteur, 6, so nobody attacks. They Hold B: 3 to 2.

The control: Clockwork Keeper in both slots, same deal. On T2 the Ramhound goes to A and a Keeper (E2, its Calm Power not paid, so no draw) to base, and no rune is left. Their T2 is the line they planned: the Ray kills the Ramhound, and the Cleave makes the Saboteur a 6. Its 6 kill the Poro, and the Poro's 2 do not kill it. They take A, and the legend draws: 1 to 1. On your T3 (six runes) the Keeper walks from base into B, empty, a Conquer, and the Guardian and the second Keeper join it: 2 to 1. They Hold A on their T3, and the Rearguard (2) does not attack B (8 while defending): 2 to 2. You Hold B on T4 and they Hold A: 3 to 3.

Defy in Crumbling Sands' slot. The same line, for the same rune. Decree of Focus takes the Ray, and Defy counters the Cleave, which costs E1 and no Power. 3 to 2. Defy would also have countered the Ray, the first spell.

En Garde in Decree of Focus' slot. En Garde: "[Reaction] (Play any time, even before spells and abilities resolve.) Give a friendly unit +1 :rb_might: this turn, then an additional +1 :rb_might: this turn if it is the only unit you control there." On the Ramhound beside the Poro it is +1, a 4, and the Ray's 3 do not kill it. But after the countered Cleave, the Saboteur's 3 are exactly the 1 the Ramhound has left and the Poro's 2: both die, your 6 kill the Saboteur, and A is empty. So you hold En Garde instead. The Ray kills the Ramhound, Crumbling Sands counters the Cleave, and En Garde goes on the Poro, now alone at A: 2 + 1 + 1 = 4. Its 4 kill the Saboteur, and the Saboteur's 3 do not kill it. A stays yours with the Poro instead of the Ramhound, and the game goes as the main line: 3 to 2. The walk never needs more than En Garde's +2 against a 3-Might attacker.

If the Saboteur takes B instead. On their T2 the Rearguard and the Pouty Poro go to base, and the Saboteur walks into B, empty: a non-combat showdown with no spell in it, so neither card can be cast. 1 to 1, and your two runes did nothing. On your T3 (six runes, none recycled) you Hold A, and Royal Guard and its Soldier go to A, two runes up again: 2 to 1. A defends at 2 + 3 + 2 + 2 = 9, and their ready bodies in base are 4, so on their T3 they Hold B and play the Attendant (nothing in their trash) and the Duo: 2 to 2. You Hold A on T4 and they Hold B: 3 to 3, the control's score, with both reactions still in hand.

How often this happens. The draw pile is 39 cards, the 40 of Tournament Rules 402.1 less the Chosen Champion. Tournament Rules 402.1: "In a constructed event, players must register a Main Deck of exactly 40 cards (including a chosen champion), 1 Legend, 12 runes, and exactly 3 battlefields each with a unique name." Going first, you have seen 6 cards by T2 (four opening, one draw a turn from T1). With three copies, a Crumbling Sands among the first 6 is 40.30%, and so is a Decree of Focus. Both are 14.55%. Their Ray and their Cleave both among their own first 6 is 14.55% too.

5. Breaks to

What the engine did, and the predicate. On their T2 Decree of Focus kept the Ramhound alive through the Ray, and Crumbling Sands countered the Cleave that would have killed it anyway. A stayed yours. The predicate is: played by them on their T2 with the five runes they had, does it leave A not yours after their T2?

The scope. A Fury/Chaos deck plays only Fury, Chaos and Fury/Chaos cards (103.1.b), and its Signature cards must carry its legend's tag, 103.2.d.2: "All of the Signature cards must have the Champion tag that corresponds to the Champion Legend of the deck." As in the En Garde play, that is 252 cards folded by name (not a legend, battlefield, rune or token, and not a Signature card with another champion's tag), less the five banned in constructed (Called Shot, Draven, Vanquisher, Fight or Flight, Scrapheap, Stealthy Pursuer): 247. 62 of them are spells.

The free answer: the empty battlefield. The Saboteur takes B. Decree of Focus has no combat to read and Crumbling Sands no spell, so both are blank. No rune, and 1 to 1 after their T2 instead of 1 to 0. They still have the Ray and the Cleave, and the game ends 3 to 3, as the control did.

Fighting into the two runes, the one-rune answers. Fewer spells are no help to them. With the Ray alone, Decree of Focus blanks it and the Saboteur dies attacking a 9. With the Cleave alone, Decree of Focus makes the Ramhound a 7, and their 6 kill only the Poro. A stays yours both ways. What breaks the line is a third spell after Crumbling Sands has been spent, and it has to fit in their last rune. The predicate for the candidates: of the 62 spells, a card with [Action] or [Reaction] (the regex \[(Action|Reaction)\], case-insensitive, reminder text left in) that costs no more than E1 and one Power. That is 11 cards, and 4 of them break the line:

None of the four takes A for them: the Saboteur dies in every line. The other seven do not touch it. SFD-003 Blood Rush and UNL-010 Vault Breaker give +2, so the Saboteur is a 5: the Poro dies and 3 go on the Ramhound, 6 of its 7. UNL-134 Existential Dread stuns an attacking enemy, and yours defend. VEN-015 Decree of Rage deals 4 to a Calm unit, and the Poro and the Ramhound are Order. OGN-179 Acceptable Losses and SFD-135 Factory Recall act on gear, and OGN-183 Stacked Deck draws.

Two spells in the other order do not break it either. Gust first, in their Main Phase, on the Poro (spell one, Chaos, out of combat: neither card can answer it) leaves the Ramhound alone, a 2. The Saboteur attacks it, Decree of Focus makes it a 6, and Crumbling Sands counters the second spell, whichever it is. The Saboteur's 3 do not kill a 6. Two open runes and these two cards answer two one-rune spells in any order. The third is what does it.

What the counter cannot reach. Defy and Crumbling Sands cost the same, E1 and one Calm Power. Over the 62 spells, Defy's printed cap (206) leaves out 11: OGN-014 Sky Splitter, OGN-022 Thermo Beam, OGN-025 Blind Fury, OGN-029 Falling Star, OGN-172 Rebuke, OGN-198 The Harrowing, OGN-203 Possession, OGS-002 Firestorm, SFD-145 Switcheroo, SFD-147 Downwell and UNL-140 Conscription. Exactly one of the 62 prints "This can't be countered": VEN-015 Decree of Rage, which is within Defy's cap. So Defy can counter 50 of the 62, Crumbling Sands 61, but only as the second spell of a turn. Decree of Rage is the one Fury spell neither counter reaches, and Decree of Focus answers it. Its 4 damage go on a Calm unit, the Decree makes that unit +4, and Sunlit Guardian is then a 7.

What the pump cannot reach. Of the 247, 76 of the 154 units and 30 of the 62 spells are Chaos only. Decree of Focus does nothing against those unless a Fury unit is in the same combat.

6. Verdict

Right about both conditions; Defy does Crumbling Sands' job here, and the free answer is the battlefield they do not hold. Walked going first against the Draven deck, the list held two runes on T2 behind a Poro and a Ramhound at A. When the Saboteur attacked with a Ray and a Cleave behind it, Decree of Focus took the first spell and Crumbling Sands the second. A stayed yours: 1 to 0 after their T2, 3 to 2 after their T4. Two Clockwork Keepers in the slots lose A on their T2: 3 to 3. Defy in Crumbling Sands' slot does the same for the same rune, and could counter the first spell too. En Garde in Decree of Focus' slot does the same against a 3-Might attacker. Crumbling Sands countered the second spell, as the entry says, and the first spell did not have to resolve for that (419.4.b). The opponent's free answer is to walk into the empty battlefield. Then neither card can be cast: 3 to 3, the control's score. Fighting into the two runes, they need a third one-rune spell, and four cards in their pool do it: Hextech Ray, Monster Harpoon, Gust and Cleave.

7. Not verified

I did not deal the channel order. The walk assumes six Calm and six Order runes for you, Radiant Dawn's two domains, in the twelve of Tournament Rules 402.1. Crumbling Sands on their T2 needs a Calm among your first four runes, ready or not: it fails in 15 of 495, 3.03%, the deals with four Order first. Defy in its slot needs the same, also 3.03%. Decree of Focus, En Garde, the Clockwork Keepers with their cost unpaid, and every body before T4 need no Power. The Vanguard Captain on T4 needs an Order among the seven runes left of your first eight, since the recycled rune is a Calm: with six Calm in the deck the first eight hold at least two Order, 0 of 495.

Their walk assumes six Fury and six Chaos. The Ray on their T2 needs a Fury among their first five: it fails in 6 of 792, 0.76%, the deals with five Chaos first. A second Ray or a Harpoon as the third spell needs a second Fury among those five: it fails in 96 of 792, 12.12%, the deals with one Fury or none. Gust and Cleave take any rune. The Cemetery Attendant on their T3 needs a Chaos among the runes left of their first seven, after one Fury was recycled: with six Fury it cannot fail, 0 of 792.

How likely an answer is. The walk fixes their opening four and their first two draws. Had either draw been one of the ten copies of the four breakers left in the other 35 cards (two Rays, two Cleaves, three Harpoons, three Gusts), A would have been empty after their T2: 49.58%. That counts only the cards named, not how many of them a deck runs. The free answer, B, needs no card at all.

Their deciding to attack A is the walk's choice of opponent; §4 walks the other one. Not walked: going second, the mulligan, 2v2, a rune split other than six and six, an attack with Chaos units only, two-rune answers with the Rearguard left in hand, Decree of Rage on the Sunlit Guardian, and the turns after their T4.

Leads